Petition to Revoke Article 50 - Brexit and the EU: living, holidaying and moving to Vera - Vera forum - Costa de Almería forum in the Almeria province of Spain
UK DIRECT REMOVALS
Grupo Platinum Estates
ASSSA Insurance
Mini Digger Almera
Have Tools Will Travel

Join the Vera forum

Join the Vera forumMy name's Alex and this is my website all about Vera in Spain. Register now for free to talk about Brexit and the EU: living, holidaying and moving to Vera and much more!

Petition to Revoke Article 50 - Page 31

chrisso50

Posted: Fri May 24, 2019 11:21pm

chrisso50

Super helpful member

Posts: 1111

1342 helpful points

Location: Roquetas de Mar

Joined: 23 Jul 2018

Posted: Fri May 24, 2019 11:21pm

Matthew said - “My next predictions- (i) Bojo to become leader of the Conservatives. (ii) Bojo to become the UK's next Prime Minister (iii) Bojo to throw shapes at the EU still feeling the EU needs the UK more than vice versa (iv) Bojo to seek another extension from the end of October (v) A general election to be called. (vi) The Confirmatory Referendum to take place in 2021.“

My prediction is similar but with a different outcome:

1. Bojo to become leader of the Conservatives - and thus PM, by end July (the mind boggles)

2. Bojo throws shapes at the EU  but achieves absolutely nothing.  Meanwhile he threatens we will leave the EU without a deal automatically - on 31 Oct 2019. True. This can happen without an extension ...

3. When Parliament resumes after Summer recess there are several Tory MPs dismayed at the prospect of No Deal so they resign the whip. Bojo no longer has a parliamentary majority.

4. Labour wins a No Confidence vote in September, aided by Tory votes and abstentions.

5. The EU independently grants us an extension because of our ongoing constitutional crisis ... despite the U.K. not formally seeking it.

 6. Bojo is compelled to call a general election for late October/early November.

 7. At the GE the Brexit Party gains lots of Tory seats. Bojo loses his own marginal seat (Uxbridge). Labour and LibDems and SNP mop up. Labour is now the largest party and Corbyn becomes PM.

8. Corbyn promises to extract a fresh ‘deal’ from EU. When this is rebuffed by the EU he passes legislation for a fresh ‘People’s Referendum’ - to take place in May 2020 at the same time as council elections.

9. The third referendum (previous ones in 1975 and 2016) gets 20 million voting Remain, 10 million voting for ‘Brexit with No Deal’.

10. We stay in the EU and the nightmare ends. The Tory party now changes its policy and seeks the centre ground. It ejects Brexiters and the ERG faction. The ERG Tories join the Brexit Party and spend 40 more years chasing a unicorn Brexit ...

chrisso50

Posted: Fri May 24, 2019 11:35pm

chrisso50

Super helpful member

Posts: 1111

1342 helpful points

Location: Roquetas de Mar

Joined: 23 Jul 2018

Posted: Fri May 24, 2019 11:35pm

The ‘petition to revoke Article 50’ title no longer applies - article 50 has ended and we are now on extended notice from the EU to agree a deal by 31 October.

But here is a concise comment on May’s demise by blogger Ian Dunt - enjoy!

"May, more than any other month of the year, wants us to feel most alive" - Fennel Hudson

View this email in your browser

Theresa May announced her resignation as prime minister in the same way she began her term: with the expression of political values she did precisely nothing to promote.

It was a bookend speech, almost identical in its vision to the one she made when she first entered Downing Street. She spoke about the need to find "compromise" on Brexit. She said the referendum was a call for "profound change in our country". She outlined her supposed accomplishments in national finance, helping first-time buyers and the environment. She emphasised a "decent, moderate and patriotic Conservative government, on the common ground of British politics". And she called for a country that could "stand together".

Not a single word of it was true. The two bookend speeches bore no resemblance at all to the content of her premiership.

The list of accomplishments was particularly desperate. In reality, as everyone knows - as she knows best of all - Brexit has wiped everything else off the domestic agenda. There is no time or capacity to do anything about inequality, or industry, or the environment, because it eats up all of the attention of the government and civil service.

The Conservative government did not stand in the "common ground" of British politics. From the moment of her 2016 conference speech, when it was clear that ending free movement overrode all other political considerations, she made it a formal policy to sabotage Britain's trading status and economic and legal structure in order to reduce immigration.

It was as simple as that. Ending free movement meant leaving the single market. Leaving the single market meant an end to Britain's position as beachhead for global companies entering Europe, for our ability to sell services across the continent, and for frictionless trade. But all those considerations were considered secondary to immigration.

This moment has now been absorbed into British political group-think as somehow necessary. It was nothing of the kind. There was never a democratic basis for it on the basis of the referendum result. Somewhere between 20% to 40% of Leave voters were either relaxed about immigration or did not prioritise it above the economy. Even Boris Johnson, who won the campaign for Leave, wrote a piece immediately afterwards holding open the possibility of keeping free movement.

It was a political choice. It took the fundamental demand of Ukip and absorbed it into No.10. It was the Faragisation of Great Britain. And she was too short-sighted to see that this would not nuetralise his appeal. He would always find an imaginary betrayal to hound her with, as he is now, even when the disasters we are experiencing are a result of his own arguments.

This was not the common ground. It was the hard right. Its fundamental proposition was that reducing the number of foreigners in Britain was worth national sabotage. She embraced it eagerly, right to the end. Even in the bitter final days of her premiership, it was all she really seemed to care about. When she published her deal, ending free movement was her top line. Even when she outlined her updated ten-point plan this week, it was highlighted.

And then there is the utter hypocrisy of her appeal for compromise. Of course, it is easy to see why she says this. Labour won't back her and many Leave MPs won't either, so it is natural to conclude that she is offering a pragmatic position in the centre which ideologues are unable to accept. That is an intuitive thought, but it is entirely false.

There was never a compromise. The two obvious compromise positions - single market and customs union - were dismissed early on as a betrayal of Brexit. May spent years encouraging this language without seeing that it would eventually be turned on her.

These two options would have allowed a prime minister to deliver Brexit while maintaining British quality of life and frictionless trade, specifically in Ireland. She did not take them.

People now say it would have been impossible. That is tragically false. At the start of her premiership, she had sky-high public support and strong backing in the party. That was the moment to make the brave case. It would have offered her a clear and deliverable Brexit policy. Instead, she ruled them out, and made it impossible to deliver the project without threatening the economy and the Union. In reality, it was this course of action which was impossible. And it was this which broke her in the end.

Some believe that her commitment to keeping the border open in Ireland was a sign of compromise. It is a statement that tells you a great deal about how badly our standards have dissolved. It is simply a commitment to the Union. If that border closes up, if state infrastructure appears there - either in the form of physical surveillance equipment and buildings, or border agents - it goes against the spirit of the Good Friday Agreement and threatens a return to the Troubles. It is, as May belatedly recognised, the beginning of the end of the UK.

To call a commitment to the Union compromise, especially when it comes from the leader of a party with the word Unionist literally in its name, is quite astonishingly insane, but that is the level of understanding we now live in.

This was not to do with compromise. It was to do with reality.

These are the trade-offs Brexit entails. If you want full control of your trading status, you will not be in a customs union. If you are not in a customs union, you will not be able to have frictionless trade with your neighbours. If you want full regulatory control of your country, and an end to free movement, you will not be in the single market. If you are not in the single market, you will hurt British industry and quality of life.

Brexit was based on the idea that downsides do not exist, that trade-offs are a conspiracy, and that simple answers can be given to complex problems. Every single one of these propositions is false. The moment it turned from poetry to prose, from rhetoric to reality, from campaign slogans to legal documents, the lie was revealed.

That is what the Irish issue was. It was not a compromise at all. It was the translation of Leave campaign gibberish into legal and practical fact. And the moment it was written down, it destroyed her.

In truth, she never showed any interest in compromise. The 48% of the country who voted Remain were systematically ignored, belittled and slandered throughout her time in office. They were branded elitists, despite the fact the Leave result hinged on wealthy voters. They were branded 'the establishment', despite being completely frozen out of decision-making. They were branded 'citizens of nowhere', despite being motivated by outrage at what was being done to their country. They were branded 'Brexit-deniers', despite highlighting the very problems which would make the project undeliverable.

This came from Leave politicians and journalists in general, but at the top, giving it form and validation, was the prime minister. She never reached out. She spoke of crazed conspiracy theories to undermine Brexit by the opposition, or judges, or the House of Lords, or EU leaders. She threw in her lot with the most crazed and hysterical Brexiters in her party. And in the end they devoured her anyway, because it was easier to do that than face the inadequacy of their own position.

She was a deceptive prime minister throughout. She lied incessantly, about every stage and aspect of the project. But the biggest lies came at the beginning and the end of her premiership, when she claimed to fight for a better country, to seek the centre ground and look for compromise. She did none of these things. And it is intolerable that she should pretend she did.

On the face of it, she is the worst prime minister of our lifetime. She has no achievements, she conducted herself without grace or principle, and she governed the country as it was humiliated on the world stage.

In fact, that's not quite right. David Cameron, her predecessor, takes the top spot. He made his errors for entirely self-serving reasons, in a benign political environment. He created Brexit by calling a referendum, in order to minimise losses in a local election no-one even remembers anymore. The demands upon him were miniscule and his failure enormous.

May has the advantage of much greater demands. Anyone would have struggled. They were punishing circumstances and she handled it particularly badly. So she is not the worst prime minister. She is the second worst. That's the best thing you can say about her.”

Matthew

Posted: Sat May 25, 2019 8:56am

Matthew

Legendary helpful member

Posts: 2261

3381 helpful points

Location: Mojacar

Joined: 16 May 2018

Posted: Sat May 25, 2019 8:56am

Some excellent posts there from Chrisso. I think Dario and I wouldn't complain if his predictions are correct. At the moment things look good for people of the Remain persuasion. We have often heard that a day is a long time in politics and the cocky Conservatives have months to regroup. 

What-if, if Bojo doesn't take over the reins? Most Conservative supporters are not stupid, you know. Right, they have endured a kind of mass hysteria that "they-need-us-more-than-we-need-them"  still pertains among many Daily Telegraph readers. My thoughts are that this recent jump has happened too quickly for Bojo. It seems he is destined to fail again and perhaps has the potential to go down in history as the worst UK Prime Minister in history. So, will he delay his march to the top and allow somebody else fall on his/her sword? I reckon he would wish to be seen as a kind of White Knight saviour.

In all this there is some good. UKIP has had to show its hand. Nigel Farage has jumped the gun and for him it's all or nothing. Jeremy Corbyn appears as a weakling but is getting stronger. But, (wait-for-it) the overburdened British Taxpayer is becoming more intelligent and won't have a knee-jerk reaction to any political promises in the future. There is a more educated young population in the UK maturing by the hour and even the older population is becoming more street-wise. It is best to be in the EU tent rather than outside unable to piss in.

The longer the Confirmatory Referendum is delayed, the better. If it happens say before the end of 2020, it is possible that the Brexiteers will win or that the Remainers could win with a small majority thus causing more confusion. I think mid 2021 Confirmatory Referendum will provide a huge majority result for the Remainers and cast any doubts about Britain's international standing to memory.

DarioMartin

Posted: Sat May 25, 2019 10:03am

DarioMartin

Original Poster

Legendary helpful member

Posts: 5399

6439 helpful points

Location: Vera

Joined: 16 Aug 2017

Posted: Sat May 25, 2019 10:03am

And I agree with Chris, the heading is a little off-track now ... although that being said, could not a future leader take the bold step of actually revoking the action of Article 50?

Chris, I can but only hope you have some second-sight, or a keen political sense, because you paint a delightful picture.

As we are still in the EU, I get to go vote this Sunday, not just for EU representatives, but for our local Mayor.  It is a privilege I shall indeed be exercising.  The joy of being able to join locals in picking the town mayor is one that will be stripped under Brexit I fear.

I look forward though (I think) to seeing how the next few weeks unfolds ......

chrisso50

Posted: Sat May 25, 2019 6:35pm

chrisso50

Super helpful member

Posts: 1111

1342 helpful points

Location: Roquetas de Mar

Joined: 23 Jul 2018

Posted: Sat May 25, 2019 6:35pm

I admit that it is just my opinion that 'Article 50' is dead. Can anyone correct me? Article 50 is part of an EU treaty and made provision that we leave two years after it was invoked. May asked the EU to grant an extension. That was granted by the EU until 12 April. She sought a further extension and that was granted until 31 October. Extensions are now at the discretion of the EU, not the UK. As two years have gone we have surely handed over control of A50 to the EU. Is it therefore still possible for us to revoke it?

I have looked in vain for a concise statement about this. It's all rather legalistic:
https://www.ft.com/content/cdbb18b2-5624-11e9-91f9-b6515a54c5b1

It looks as if only the EU can force a No Deal on the UK - by refusing a further extension in October. It's up to the EU to say - "Here's another extension - even though you have not asked for it!" or "that's it, you will now leave with No Deal on 31 October." The latter seems unlikely as within a fortnight of crashing out with 'No Deal' the UK would be back and begging for a deal, because of the economic consequences that would follow.

However the above FT article [4 April, so after the two years was up] suggests that Article 50 still lives! "The pressing problem is one of time. If the UK is faced with the dilemma of revocation or a looming no-deal Brexit, it may be politically responsible for it to revoke quickly. Passing primary legislation, however, takes time. For although a revocation notice can perhaps be served a second before midnight, as Martin Selmayr, secretary-general of the European Commission, has suggested, an act of parliament will take a little longer to pass."

In that case a letter from the next PM might go:


"Dear Donald,

I'm the new PM. I've changed my mind and the UK notification under Article 50 is hereby revoked. We might decide to have another referendum on the issue, if the fancy takes us.

Yours,

Boris"


Advertisement - posts continue below

DarioMartin

Posted: Sat May 25, 2019 7:17pm

DarioMartin

Original Poster

Legendary helpful member

Posts: 5399

6439 helpful points

Location: Vera

Joined: 16 Aug 2017

Posted: Sat May 25, 2019 7:17pm

Chrisso, taking your interpretation to its logical conclusion, if the EU can unilaterally decide to either extend or not the operation of Article 50, could they not unilaterally decide that UK has had enough time, and not getting its crap together, that Article 50 is revoked and UK remains part of the EU ....?

In such case, Donald Tusks response might be

Dear BoJo

Thanks for your advice of revocation of Article 50.  Here’s the thing, we revoked it last week.  We might think about letting you have another referendum when you all grow up a bit

Love, Uncle Donald 

chrisso50

Posted: Sun May 26, 2019 1:32am

chrisso50

Super helpful member

Posts: 1111

1342 helpful points

Location: Roquetas de Mar

Joined: 23 Jul 2018

Posted: Sun May 26, 2019 1:32am

Indeed. Love it! ;)

Matthew

Posted: Thu Jun 6, 2019 9:01am

Matthew

Legendary helpful member

Posts: 2261

3381 helpful points

Location: Mojacar

Joined: 16 May 2018

Posted: Thu Jun 6, 2019 9:01am

So the greatest bandwagon jumper of them all (Donald Trump) has told the Brits to skidaddle from the EU without a deal. He will expand trading with the UK, of course. Like the supermarket who informed a supplier that everything he produces will be bought making production easier and distribution cheaper.

The small trader sacrifices all his smaller contacts to solely trade with the large supermarket. He is now dealing with one customer only. Two years later, the supermarket wants price reductions from the supplier and he is snookered as he has only one customer. He will not be in business for too long after. But the supermarket will continue to trade.

On the news bulletin (ITV or BBC) two nights ago only one person - an apparent intelligent young lady said she would prefer if Trump kept his nose out of UK politics. The other brown tongued who were interviewed had the foresight of a turkey beckoning the advance of Christmas.

DarioMartin

Posted: Fri Jun 7, 2019 10:08am

DarioMartin

Original Poster

Legendary helpful member

Posts: 5399

6439 helpful points

Location: Vera

Joined: 16 Aug 2017

Posted: Fri Jun 7, 2019 10:08am

I was holding back replying, to see if the Orange one did anything else stupid ... but I haven’t really followed the news, so I’m not sure.  Probably has.

But anyway, yes, I quite agree with you Matthew, and I certainly don’t trust the way he backtracked on putting the NHS on the bargaining table; no matter what the most strident of voices says about “hands off our NHS”, if US becomes major trading partner, the NHS will most certainly be back on the table the moment a ruthless and self-serving US administration start putting the squeeze on UK as Matthew outlines above. 

Forget all that blather about being staunch allies and best of friends - only someone completely devoid of a sense of reality will believe that particular gem.  The US is out to get whatever it can from a possible post no-deal Brexit cataclysm.  Again, only someone complete devoid of a sense of reality would believe that a post no-deal Brexit would be anything less than disastrous for the UKs economy, and would return Britain to the “glory days” of the Empire.

I still hold hope for a miracle, and ultimately the revocation of Article 50 and this past two or three years in British politics consigned to the scrapheap of history, where it so richly deserves to be!

Matthew

Posted: Fri Jun 7, 2019 11:31am

Matthew

Legendary helpful member

Posts: 2261

3381 helpful points

Location: Mojacar

Joined: 16 May 2018

Posted: Fri Jun 7, 2019 11:31am

The chance of Brexit occuring is equivalent of Rep. of Ireland's chances of winning the next World Cup. In lay-man's words No Chance.

But, Donald Trump is residing in ROI since Wednesday with short flights to France and the UK as necessary. His television interviews are different in ROI from those in the UK and France. He referred to the NI/ROI border as "your wall" and committed a few more faux paux along the way.

President Trump is playing the Irish and the British minded people in the USA to get his campaign off the starting blocks for his re-election.

Back to Brass-Tacks:- Bridgend is about to lose its Ford plant in its entirety. Electric vehicles engine production is the main excuse. Have no doubt the Brexit thoughts amongst the Tories are the main issues there. It was disturbing to see people interviewed in last night's UK news about Ford pulling out of Bridgend. Some of those people will never work again. No doubt Bojo (nickname hasn't yet taken off in ROI) and Mr Farage won't be affected. They will still be farting in silk as the UK dole queues get longer.

Sign up for free or login to reply to this topic

Want to reply to this topic? Login or register for free to post your message:

Find more Brexit and the EU topics from a particular area:


Register for free!

Login to your account

UK DIRECT REMOVALS
Grupo Platinum Estates
ASSSA Insurance
Mini Digger Almera
Have Tools Will Travel
Advertise your business here
Advertise your property
Help with my computer