Petition to Revoke Article 50 - Page 30

I didn't think that Theresa May would have a battle of the bulge for Brexit in mid summer saving her energies for the October deadline. Her offensive appears to have backfired on her and perhaps on The Etonian who it appears will now have to step up to the plate. 

The Guardian has predicted that she will be the former leader of the Tories by this weekend. I must say the good posters here predicted this months ago. Even Ms May is now talking about a Confirmatory Referendum. She's clutching at sinking straws and those who were loyal to her are ditching her for their own reputations. What did Theresa think would be the outcome with the bad foresight to bring the DUP and its crooked membership on board?

If this Confirmatory Referendum takes place before 2021 it will be Brexit. Have no doubt. I reckon the UK needs at least 18 months for the Confirmatory Referendum to confirm a Remain vote.

I won't comment on the European Elections in the UK today yet. (The EU elections takes place in ROI tomorrow). Let's wait for the people of the UK to elect their EU reps and then perhaps we can restart the debate?  

I look forward to it.  There have been so many twists and turns the past few weeks in Westminster that there really is no way of saying what will happen now ...

The Final Say Referendum will need to be before 2021. People are tired of the Brexit arguments and division and want the issue put to bed - either leaving on May’s Nov 2018 terms or Remain.  There does need to be a referendum based on the harsh realities of Brexit that are now better known than 3 years ago. Otherwise Brexit supporters will continue to claim they were ‘betrayed’. They should have a Final Say - but I expect them to be trounced by Remain as we are.

My prediction is Bojo becomes Tory leader and PM, calls an election - because moving the deckchairs on the Titanic achieves nothing - and loses his Uxbridge seat. The Tories lose a lot of seats to Farage’s Brexit party, Labour takes over as largest party, supported informally by Remain parties, and organises a Final Say Referendum after being rebuffed by the EU in attempts to renegotiate yet another deal.

That seems like a possibility - I hope so.  We know BoJo is one of the Unicorn and Faery Fart crowd that believes the deal can be renegotiated, despite assurances from Brussels that it won’t be.  He truly believes the EU will blink first and “they need us more than we need them”. Numbskull!

My concern is the rising of Farage on the right, with honeyed words and yet more lies.... once again I am reminded of Oswald Mosley in the ‘30s.  I can but hope Farage suffers the same fate as Mosley ....

"The Final Say Referendum will need to be before 2021"

Chrisso, before we had put this debate on hold I reckoned there was a fair chance that if there were another referendum say in 2020  there was a good chance the Brexiteers would win again thereby consigning the UK into a Euro Wilderness.

I spent some time in Northern Ireland recently and learned that the population there is split (yet again!) on EU membership. The nationalist community voted to Remain whilst the loyalist people voted for Brexit. Arlene Foster is First Minister there and holds the balance of power for the Tory party at Westminster.

Bojo (I love the name) will be in an very embarrassing situation shortly as leader of the Tories and perhaps as Prime Minister. He will be pressing for a Confirmatory Referendum asap as he believes he can get Brexit through with or without an agreement. In Ireland we say things twice to be sure to be sure. Another referendum in 2019 or 2020 might not be what Remainers need.

I hope things don't move too fast. Theresa May will resign shortly, Boris Johnston will take over. There will be a general election called in the next few months. That will sort out much of the ifs and buts. Even we in Ireland need a stable government in the UK (anything without the DUP running the show on the mainland will do). 

Matthew said: "I spent some time in Northern Ireland recently and learned that the population there is split (yet again!) on EU membership. The nationalist community voted to Remain whilst the loyalist people voted for Brexit. Arlene Foster is First Minister there and holds the balance of power for the Tory party at Westminster."

In the 2016 Brexit referendum, nearly 56% of voters in Northern Ireland voted to stay in the EU. Northern Ireland voters are  divided on whether there should be another Brexit referendum; but if there was one, they would vote overwhelmingly (59 per cent) to remain in the EU.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/irish-times-poll-northern-ireland-voters-do-not-want-dup-tory-brexit-1.3818264

As Stormont is no longer sitting it looks as if Arlene Foster has little influence there other than via her proxy UK DUP MPs. But should Brexit take place then Irish reunification beckons:

"With Northern Irish unionists - supporters of staying in the United Kingdom - worried they could be forced to become part of Ireland simply because Protestants will one day be outnumbered, Fine Gael and Fianna Fail are moving cautiously because they realize reunification would be difficult if their appeal did not go beyond nationalist voters... local council elections this month  signalled there is some appetite for change. There is more to politics in Northern Ireland than flags and lampposts.”
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nireland-politics/brexit-shifts-politics-in-ireland-as-parties-look-north-idUSKCN1SR0UU

HI Chrisso,

I know I introduced Northern Ireland to the discussion. (I'm already sorry I did). It is a complex situation there. The outnumbering of loyalists by nationalists is not far away and even with voting strategies there is only a difference of 2 MPs at the moment. 

Discussion re reunification of NI with ROI is for another day. I think it will never happen (at least in this and the next generation), we can't even agree on one football team to represent the island. Flags will have to come down, murals deleted, lamp-posts let alone, marches stopped, bonfires not to be built, "peace" wall to come down, integration of schools, acceptance of the Irish language, change of mindset of many (in ROI and NI) and a miracle. 

The referendum issues on EU membership of the UK are even an issue.

what the uk needs is a party that has the countries best interests at heart.we are currently back here ,not for long.we worked out some time ago that the uk specialieses in pooping on its own people,we have personal experience of this times two.once you are out of the dump you have vastly improved your quality of life.Surely thats why you move to the med.? the majority of mps are lawyers and , rees mogg boris etc have vested interests[ireland] . The ping pong politics in the uk is crazy and pretty well ensures that rich do not suffer when governments mess up.

I hear my Brit Spanish neighbours gloating that Theresa May has indicated when she will resign from being leader of the Tories and later as Prime Minister. They can't wait for Bojo to take hold of the reins. It's not guaranteed that Bojo will replace Ms May or indeed become PM, but he is odds on for both in Paddy Power.

But, the problems are still there and there does not seem to be a resolution in sight. We on this topic have already predicted what will happen and we were right. OK! - My next predictions- (i) Bojo to become leader of the Conservatives. (ii) Bojo to become the UK's next Prime Minister (iii) Bojo to throw shapes at the EU still feeling the EU needs the UK more than vice versa (iv) Bojo to seek another extension from the end of October (v) A general election to be called. (vi) The Confirmatory Referendum to take place in 2021. 

You heard it here first - Natch!

BoJo will be vehemently opposed to any further extension, beings he’s one of the rainbow, unicorn and fairy fart crowd that thinks the Withdrawal Agreement can be renegotiated.  *sigh* ... but whilst he will get the support of the so-called ERG, he’ll be up against a stone wall with SNP, Greens, Lib Dems, probably a good proportion of Labour .... so what can he do? May tried to be a Thatcher, make no U turns etc - but it was that lack of willingness to compromise that broke her.  BoJo is a different kettle of fish ... he might have his beliefs when he’s on the radio or writing his column - it’s easy to be a keyboard warrior; but will he have the courage of his convictions when he’s standing in the very very hot spot?  I’m not so sure.  The only thing I think is certain is that for a generation at least, the Prime Ministership of the UK will be a poisoned chalice - no matter which flavor of politics gets in ....