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Posted: Fri Jul 5, 2024 9:38am
8 replies6 members subscribed
Aggis

Aggis

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Posts: 136

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Joined: 7 Oct 2022

It looks like the pollsters where correct with their predictions for the general election. It’s just a pity that they weren’t as accurate with  their Brexit predictions. 

chrisso50

Posted: Fri Jul 5, 2024 9:46pm

chrisso50

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Posted: Fri Jul 5, 2024 9:46pm

It seems to me they were not accurate - except for getting the result right. The pollsters were giving Labour a 20 point lead for weeks: Labour on 40% approx, Tories on 20% approx. The result was rather different: Labour on 34%, just 2% more than in 2019, and Tories on 24%. So just a 10 points gap. 
Chris

hartcjhart

Posted: Sat Jul 6, 2024 6:05pm

hartcjhart

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941 helpful points

Location: Mojacar

Joined: 26 Oct 2017

Posted: Sat Jul 6, 2024 6:05pm

and a big well done to the Reform Party

Steveb911

Posted: Sun Jul 7, 2024 9:47pm

Posts: 10

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Joined: 22 Jan 2024

Posted: Sun Jul 7, 2024 9:47pm

My recollection is that they were!

The polls consistently showed a small majority in favour of Brexit which is exactly what happened - 52%/48%.

it would be interesting to see what the result might be if we had another referendum?

I wonder if the Tories regret the outcome now as it was a key element in their downfall since 2016, as they spent years tearing chunks out of each other rather than getting on with running the country!

it was also instrumental in getting BoJo elected as PM and the idiot Truss succeeding him…


Ah well, glad I’m moving to Spain to get away from the toxicity in the UK.

Aggis

Posted: Mon Jul 8, 2024 9:31am

Aggis

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Posted: Mon Jul 8, 2024 9:31am

Steveb911 wrote on Sun Jul 7, 2024 9:47pm:

My recollection is that they were!

The polls consistently showed a small majority in favour of Brexit which is exactly what happened - 52%/48%.

it would be interesting to see what the result might be if we had another referendum?

I wonder if the Tories regret the outcome now as it was a key element in their downfall since 2016, as they spent years tearing chunks out of each other rather than getting on with running the country!

it was also instrumental in getting BoJo elected as PM and the idiot Truss succeeding him…


Ah well, glad I’m moving to Spain to get away from the toxicity in the UK.

The Brexit vote was very important to me so I followed the debate and polls with great interest all the way to the referendum and at no point did I see or hear of a poll that gave the leave camp a lead in any of the polls. Indeed, they were always trailing by more than 3 or 4 points (some as much as 8.5 points) and were over 16/1 with bookmakers until well after the voting was under way. 

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Steveb911

Posted: Mon Jul 8, 2024 10:01am

Posts: 10

5 helpful points

Location: Sierra Cabrera

Joined: 22 Jan 2024

Posted: Mon Jul 8, 2024 10:01am

Aggis wrote on Mon Jul 8, 2024 9:31am:

The Brexit vote was very important to me so I followed the debate and polls with great interest all the way to the referendum and at no point did I see or hear of a poll that gave the leave camp a lead in any of the polls. Indeed, they were always trailing by more than 3 or 4 points (some as much...

... as 8.5 points) and were over 16/1 with bookmakers until well after the voting was under way. 

Think both our memories are at fault!

In the 2 weeks leading up to the referendum there were 12 polls showing leave to be in the majority and 12 polls showing remain to be in the majority with one dead heat (source Wikipedia).

Interestingly, in the week leading up to the referendum, most polls showed remain in the majority but the week before leave was the vote of choice.

All very academic now but I think you’d have to say that the pollsters were sort of right, in that it was too close to call!



L181SKY

Posted: Wed Jul 10, 2024 10:26am

L181SKY

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Posted: Wed Jul 10, 2024 10:26am

I wish i’d never read this and the comments that followed.    If any of you are really interested in Politics.  google this man.    

roland

Posted: Wed Jul 10, 2024 4:58pm

Posts: 70

30 helpful points

Location: Almería

Joined: 9 Jan 2024

Posted: Wed Jul 10, 2024 4:58pm

Steveb911 wrote on Sun Jul 7, 2024 9:47pm:

My recollection is that they were!

The polls consistently showed a small majority in favour of Brexit which is exactly what happened - 52%/48%.

it would be interesting to see what the result might be if we had another referendum?

I wonder if the Tories regret the outcome now as it was a key element in their downfall since 2016, as they spent years tearing chunks out of each other rather than getting on with running the country!

it was also instrumental in getting BoJo elected as PM and the idiot Truss succeeding him…


Ah well, glad I’m moving to Spain to get away from the toxicity in the UK.

You will find more toxicity in these posts than there is to be found in UK. For lies insults ignorance stupidity blindness to reality and downright threatening behaviour you are coming to the right place.

Steveb911

Posted: Wed Jul 10, 2024 5:18pm

Posts: 10

5 helpful points

Location: Sierra Cabrera

Joined: 22 Jan 2024

Posted: Wed Jul 10, 2024 5:18pm

roland wrote on Wed Jul 10, 2024 4:58pm:

You will find more toxicity in these posts than there is to be found in UK. For lies insults ignorance stupidity blindness to reality and downright threatening behaviour you are coming to the right place.

Blimey. I was just responding to a comment about the accuracy of pollsters!

As it happens both the OP and I were wrong (or right depending on your point of view) as there was an even split of polls in the 2 weeks leading up to the vote, 12 saying remain was in the majority and 12 saying leave with one dead heat.

I said as such in another post….

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