Coming to Spain - Page 24

Hi Andy56

R number "less important."

"theory"

"doubt"

"That's my belief anyway!"

Andy56, with respect you sound to be kind of person I'd enjoy to have a conversation with on the terrace, but you're not filling me with confidence that you believe Covid-19 is under control in the UK. Sorry! I wish I were posting differently.

In the Guardian today -

“Prof Mauro Giacca of King’s College London told parliament how he observed catastrophic damage to the lungs of people who died of Covid-19. The cardiovascular scientist described “complete disruption of the lung architecture … something completely different from normal pneumonia, influenza or the Sars virus”.

Also giving evidence was Sir John Bell, a professor of medicine at Oxford University and a member of the government’s coronavirus vaccine taskforce, who said attempts to understand whether people who have had the disease gather any immunity would need to be tested during a second wave of infections in the UK, which he said was now likely. “Given the lockdown has now been largely released, we are now back in action and we still have a pretty reasonable level of infections in the community, I would be very surprised if we avoided a second wave. I think the real question is are we going to have a number of outbursts and then a second wave or are we just going to get a second wave.”

It’s almost seen as inevitable that the U.K. (and possibly other countries) will see a second wave, possibly in the Autumn. This plague is not going away. And it’s not an issue of Protect Vulnerable Individuals or Resurrect The Economy. Without business confidence and population confidence people will not go out to shop other than for food. Or go on holiday. 

Chris

With respect Andy, the R number is THE single most important thing.  It’s a calculated number based on number of infections divided into head of population if I recall (someone put me right - math is not my strong point 😂) ... if infections drop, your R number drops.  If your R number stays high .... it means infections aren’t dropping.

There is no guarantee at this point that having recovered from CV-19 gives you immunity - in fact there seems to be argument that it doesn’t and leaves you twice as susceptible as your lungs are already damaged.

It only takes one person infected to start the whole ball rolling again as New Zealand are finding out ... the fact that having recovered does not guarantee immunity kind of throws doubt on the whole “herd immunity” plan that UK Gov seem to be following whilst strenuously denying it.

I DO know that if it starts in Spain again, this government will be ruthless in stamping down on infections by enforcing quarantine and lockdowns.  But I hope to the gods it doesn’t come back, because the businesses here would be devastated.  As a business owner in a smallish town that has some tourism, I can vouchsafe that we can withstand a summer of no UK Tourists a whole hell of a lot better than a second outbreak.

I would really implore British nationals thinking of coming here on holiday to think twice and put the health of others ahead of their own wants and desires.  Spain this summer is NOT going to be a great place for a holiday anyway, with bars at 50% capacity, obligatory face masks, booking spots on the beach etc etc etc.  There is always next year.

The R number refers to the number of people that someone who has Covid will give it to. So for example, if the R number is 1, then a sufferer will give it to one other person. The danger at the beginning of the pandemic was that the R number was very high, and each sufferer was passing it on to several people.  Obviously, as you’ve implied, the aim is for the R number to be as low as possible. At the moment I think the R number in London is about 0.5, but in some parts of the UK it is only just below 1. If it goes back over 1, I should imagine the Spanish authorities will think again about allowing people from the UK to come to Spain.  However, as things stand, the R number is consistently falling - fingers crossed!

I’ll just leave this here - 

But the point is that that if there are only a handful of infections,  even if the R rate is over one, there are means to stamp on it. The R rate is absolutely critical once the infection spreads but at very low levels it’s less of an issue. Remember when Covid hit no one had a clue how to control it - now we understand it more so can more easily , through testing and tracking and tracing, control it. That is why I am less fearful than some. But I admit I’m no expert! 

"I would really implore British nationals thinking of coming here on holiday to think twice and put the health of others ahead of their own wants and desires."  - from Dario - Probably the most important few words on this thread todate.

Only thing (from reading the facebook equivalent of this forum and TripAdvisor) most people visiting Spain think they are doing the whole Iberian Peninsula a favour.

Not only do I hope I'm wrong, but I want to be wrong, another phase of Covid-19 in Spain is a certainty. 

(I just wonder of how long will it be before this whole thread is deleted).

Andy56, I'm no expert either, but the Irish Government on advice from its Advisors informed us that an "R" number of 1.0 is considered much too high. Their advice todate has been clear and accurate and no attempt whatsoever was made to misrepresent any numbers. In Ireland now the R number is between 0.7 and 0.5 and still our government advises us not to book sun holidays before September (and there's no guarantee that it won't be pushed further away). 

Please note I'm not going to mention the per capita death toll or rate of infection between Ireland and any country as a dreadful pandemic  tragedy is playing out and there is a long way to the end of it. One death is one too many.

Secret report Andy? Seems the censors have deleted it .... 😁😎

Now I wonder why?